While there is much admiration–and perhaps some envy around baseball for the depth the St. Louis Cardinals bring into the 2014 season, the computers at Baseball Prospectus have the Los Angeles Dodgers as the most likely National League team to make the playoffs and win the World Series.
The Cardinals are projected to win the NL Central with 85.6 victories and have nearly a 58% chance of making the playoffs but that pales in comparison to the Dodgers—who have a 91% chance of making the playoffs and 17.9% chance of winning the World Series.
According to Baseball Prospectus, a variety of statistics are used as 50,000 simulated seasons are run to calculate these percentages.
Of course, you have to play the games, let us turn back the clock just three short years ago to the historic finish of 2011. By the way, BP gave the Cardinals a 58.3% chance of making the playoffs in 2011–before Adam Wainwright was lost for the season. That number was only adjusted to 43.8% afterwards.
The Detroit Tigers are the computer-favorites in the American League with a 10.7% chance of winning the World Series.